Betting Lines
| Spread | UTSA -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | UTSA +100 PV +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTSA +7 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | PV -1.7 (+8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.2 (+26.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -2.0 (+9.0) | 134.8 (+22.2) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTSA -0.7 (+6.3) | 133.8 (+23.2) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTSA -0.4 (+6.6) | 133.7 (+23.3) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -0.0 (+7.0) | 133.0 (+24.0) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2023 | UTSA 103 – 89 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-10 | 9-3 |
| Away | 2-11 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#258) | 4.2 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#169) | -0.41 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#183) | 0.16 (#172) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#197) | 0.405 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.0% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 43.9% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.55 | 1.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.5% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 27.9% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 15.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 47.4% |
Game Analysis
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