Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
| Money | UCD +115 UCSB -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +14 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -0.9 (+14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (-7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -1.5 (+15.5) | 140.7 (-2.7) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -0.5 (+14.5) | 143.8 (-5.8) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -0.8 (+14.8) | 144.2 (-6.2) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -0.5 (+14.5) | 142.2 (-4.2) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | UCD 79 – 73 UCSB |
| Feb 6, 2026 | UCD 85 – 75 UCSB |
| Jan 9, 2026 | UCD 93 – 86 UCSB |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UCD 64 – 60 UCSB |
| Dec 8, 2024 | UCD 71 – 60 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 9-11 |
| Home | 10-6 | 9-7 |
| Away | 8-6 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#251) | 0.9 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#293) | 0.53 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#273) | 0.44 (#154) |
| RPI | 0.420 (#300) | 0.532 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.5% | 12.6% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.0% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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