Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -14.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | PSU -1400 RID +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +27 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | PSU -15.2 (+11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -14.1 (+12.9) | 150.2 (+2.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -12.1 (+14.9) | 149.2 (+3.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -12.2 (+14.8) | 150.2 (+2.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -12.3 (+14.7) | 152.4 (+0.6) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | RID |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 12-8 |
| Home | 12-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 2-8 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 72.3 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#107) | -6.8 (#288) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#213) | -1.79 (#310) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#188) | -2.23 (#309) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#254) | 0.438 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | RID |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 38.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 42.9% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 65.1% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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