But anyone who ever had heart, they wouldn't turn around and break it. "Sweet Jane" - Lou Reed
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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26–14 on winners spread MAE 10.2 40 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Pennsylvania @ Houston +28.1 133.1 99% 42–81 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Florida Gulf Coast -17.8 145.0 5% 68–72 ✗
Austin Peay @ Memphis +19.2 137.6 96% 70–81 ✓
UIC @ Southern Illinois +7.2 132.1 75% 50–62 ✓
Bellarmine @ High Point +13.8 141.9 90% 85–90 ✓
Wagner @ Manhattan +6.3 126.4 72% 68–56 ✗
South Alabama @ Old Dominion +2.7 149.4 60% 61–59 ✗
Yale @ Santa Clara +5.6 149.3 70% 66–58 ✗
Prairie View A&M @ Texas A&M +23.2 146.8 98% 54–79 ✓
West Virginia @ Ohio State +13.8 137.8 89% 75–78 ✓
Incarnate Word @ UT Rio Grande Valley +0.4 156.7 51% 74–77 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Grand Canyon +5.8 139.4 70% 70–73 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Riverside +1.4 143.2 55% 77–79 ✓
Seattle U @ UTEP -3.3 138.6 38% 73–61 ✓
California Baptist @ New Mexico State -2.7 140.4 40% 61–66 ✗
Chattanooga @ Auburn +21.5 152.1 97% 66–101 ✓
USC @ Oregon State -6.1 149.4 29% 70–86 ✗
UC Irvine @ Cal State Bakersfield -10.3 136.2 17% 75–56 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Hawai'i +10.3 130.3 83% 63–61 ✗
Robert Morris @ Green Bay +5.8 136.9 70% 61–78 ✓
New Hampshire @ Iowa State +27.5 154.4 99% 70–85 ✓
Washington State @ Colorado +7.8 147.8 76% 67–74 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Purdue Fort Wayne +23.0 143.6 98% 56–91 ✓
Cleveland State @ IU Indianapolis -12.3 142.5 13% 86–77 ✓
Monmouth @ Oklahoma +18.6 144.1 95% 56–72 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Mississippi State +26.8 135.7 99% 62–85 ✓
South Carolina State @ Oklahoma State +21.6 148.3 98% 70–86 ✓
Wright State @ Milwaukee -3.2 174.2 39% 83–91 ✗
Oakland @ Youngstown State +5.6 143.4 69% 88–81 ✗
Omaha @ South Dakota +5.6 155.5 69% 67–51 ✗
North Dakota @ South Dakota State +10.3 144.0 82% 61–80 ✓
Kansas City @ St. Thomas +11.0 130.1 84% 56–77 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Lindenwood +4.1 134.5 64% 73–62 ✗
Arizona @ Stanford -19.4 163.3 4% 82–100 ✗
Bryant @ Ole Miss +11.2 146.2 84% 78–95 ✓
Morgan State @ NJIT +5.6 155.2 69% 53–69 ✓
Western Illinois @ SIU Edwardsville +5.7 131.4 70% 78–70 ✗
Morehead State @ Southeast Missouri State -11.4 144.8 15% 83–64 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Denver +10.3 164.1 82% 89–86 ✗
Washington @ Utah +10.7 161.2 83% 90–95 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.