Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -28.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +15 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | ISU -26.0 (-11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.7 (+0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -23.9 (-8.9) | 154.8 (+0.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -21.0 (-6.0) | 156.6 (-1.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -22.5 (-7.5) | 154.8 (+0.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -23.4 (-8.4) | 156.7 (-1.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-9 |
| Home | 18-0 | 9-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.5 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 21.5 (#5) | 0.1 (#165) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#78) | 0.87 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.78 (#73) | 0.66 (#133) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#140) | 0.554 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.9% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.72 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.9% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 31.4% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.6% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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