Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
Ohio Valley Conference · Hyland Arena · December 31, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread LIN -2.5 Away covered
O/U 136.5 Under
Money LIN -120 / USI +130
Model Predictions
Spread Total LIN win
Actual USI +11 135 Lost
Massey LIN -3.9 (-14.9) — —
Massey Totals — 135.0 (-0.0) —
Bradley-Terry — — 95% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 98% ✗
Baseline Plus ML LIN -2.1 (-13.1) 138.4 (-3.4) 55% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ LIN -0.9 (-11.9) 136.9 (-1.9) 48% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML LIN -3.4 (-14.4) 135.5 (-0.5) 64% ✗
Baseline ML LIN -2.2 (-13.2) 137.2 (-2.2) 52% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 30, 2026 LIN 73 – 60 USI
Jan 3, 2026 LIN 83 – 80 USI
Feb 15, 2025 LIN 81 – 78 USI
Jan 17, 2025 USI 80 – 73 LIN
Mar 1, 2024 LIN 67 – 63 USI

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LIN USI
Overall 9-22 8-24
Conference 3-15 5-13
Home 4-10 5-10
Away 3-12 3-13
Neutral 2-0 0-1
Last 5 1-4 0-5
Streak L1 L4
Avg Pts For 63.4 66.9
Avg Pts Against 74.9 75.0
Massey -11.2 (#336) -10.5 (#328)
Bradley-Terry -1.75 (#313) -3.71 (#358)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.28 (#314) -5.27 (#360)
RPI 0.413 (#313) 0.386 (#341)
Shooting & Four Factors LIN USI
FG% 38.0% 38.2%
3PT% 28.7% 28.8%
REB / G 32.5 36.9
OREB / G 8.8 9.8
AST / TO 0.52 0.78
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 42.5% 43.2%
TOV% 18.7% 21.2%
ORB% 23.8% 26.0%
FT Rate 28.5% 18.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.2% 48.9%
Opp TOV% 17.1% 14.3%
DRB% 73.1% 72.0%
Opp FT Rate 34.1% 30.7%

Game Analysis

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