Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -15.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | MISS -1400 BRY +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +17 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | MISS -10.9 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (+27.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -10.7 (+6.3) | 152.1 (+20.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -11.5 (+5.5) | 146.9 (+26.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -10.6 (+6.4) | 148.3 (+24.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -13.4 (+3.6) | 150.2 (+22.8) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-5 |
| Home | 14-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 5.5 (#90) | -0.9 (#185) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.09 (#2) | 0.15 (#161) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.14 (#5) | 0.37 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.620 (#20) | 0.511 (#152) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 40.7% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 17.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 44.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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