Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | MEM -2500 APSU +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +11 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -19.2 (-8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.4 (+12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -18.7 (-7.7) | 140.4 (+10.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -16.2 (-5.2) | 139.4 (+11.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -16.9 (-5.9) | 140.0 (+11.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -15.4 (-4.4) | 139.2 (+11.8) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-6 |
| Home | 13-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-6 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 10.4 (#49) | -4.3 (#251) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.46 (#8) | -0.53 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.14 (#15) | -0.87 (#252) |
| RPI | 0.680 (#3) | 0.471 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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