Betting Lines
| Spread | OU -22.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | OU -10000 MONM +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OU +16 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | OU -19.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (-16.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OU -20.9 (-4.9) | 146.3 (-18.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OU -17.0 (-1.0) | 145.4 (-17.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OU -18.3 (-2.3) | 145.1 (-17.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OU -18.9 (-2.9) | 145.6 (-17.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OU | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-4 | 13-1 |
| Away | 3-6 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 13.0 (#30) | -1.5 (#195) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.53 (#25) | 0.87 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.45 (#24) | 1.08 (#109) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#53) | 0.529 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OU | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.2% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.8% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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