Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | SDST -600 UND +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +19 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -9.8 (+9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (-3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -7.2 (+11.8) | 142.7 (-1.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -5.9 (+13.1) | 141.9 (-0.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -5.7 (+13.3) | 140.7 (+0.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -5.5 (+13.5) | 142.2 (-1.2) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SDST 91 – 83 UND |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UND 90 – 87 SDST |
| Mar 8, 2025 | UND 85 – 69 SDST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UND 80 – 75 SDST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | SDST 109 – 73 UND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | UND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 10-6 |
| Home | 11-3 | 9-5 |
| Away | 6-5 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 74.0 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#204) | -7.5 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#236) | -0.37 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#223) | -0.76 (#242) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#186) | 0.466 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | UND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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