Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -26.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +39 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -27.8 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.9 (-9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -22.7 (+16.3) | 131.1 (-8.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -22.8 (+16.2) | 132.5 (-9.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -26.6 (+12.4) | 131.6 (-8.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -26.8 (+12.2) | 132.6 (-9.6) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-5 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 3-11 |
| Home | 17-0 | 9-6 |
| Away | 7-3 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.6 | 75.7 |
| Massey | 23.3 (#3) | 0.0 (#167) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.56 (#1) | 0.00 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.30 (#1) | 0.41 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.663 (#7) | 0.478 (#214) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 41.1 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 15.8 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 41.2% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.4% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.0% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
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