Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | HPU -500 BELL +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +5 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -14.2 (-9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.4 (+32.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -10.3 (-5.3) | 142.0 (+33.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -13.2 (-8.2) | 140.6 (+34.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -13.6 (-8.6) | 140.4 (+34.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -15.1 (-10.1) | 141.4 (+33.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 4-12 |
| Home | 16-1 | 6-7 |
| Away | 7-5 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.1 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#111) | -6.2 (#280) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#119) | -1.38 (#289) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#99) | -1.25 (#268) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#116) | 0.476 (#220) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 37.3% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 32.9% | 15.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 77.5% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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