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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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66–30 on winners spread MAE 10.2 96 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Southern @ Louisiana Tech +7.6 148.5 77% 59–74 ✓
Boston University @ Merrimack -3.0 132.0 34% 68–54 ✓
Campbell @ East Carolina +1.7 139.7 55% 69–79 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Mercer +4.3 143.8 66% 66–63 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ James Madison +20.7 148.2 90% 80–97 ✓
South Dakota State @ Kent State +16.0 139.7 88% 68–83 ✓
Charleston Southern @ South Florida +4.8 139.0 68% 59–79 ✓
Wake Forest @ Clemson +2.8 153.8 62% 57–77 ✓
Pittsburgh @ NC State +10.5 147.9 86% 68–60 ✗
Towson @ Long Island University -9.6 137.6 17% 74–64 ✓
Massachusetts @ Harvard +3.8 135.2 62% 71–68 ✗
Canisius @ Siena +5.8 146.2 76% 70–74 ✓
Niagara @ Iona +8.8 133.7 81% 56–78 ✓
App State @ Charlotte +10.9 129.6 85% 62–71 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Liberty +11.5 135.8 85% 59–79 ✓
Florida A&M @ Georgia +18.1 130.5 90% 46–68 ✓
Northeastern @ Georgia Tech +11.9 133.5 85% 63–81 ✓
Baylor @ Gonzaga -0.0 160.8 50% 64–63 ✓
Colgate @ Auburn +9.4 141.5 81% 66–93 ✓
UT Arlington @ LSU +17.2 133.6 88% 59–63 ✓
Illinois @ Maryland +3.4 145.6 67% 66–71 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Idaho +2.6 144.3 59% 47–84 ✓
Fordham @ Tulane +5.4 141.9 67% 95–90 ✗
Saint Francis @ Ohio State +22.9 150.1 91% 59–96 ✓
Chattanooga @ Gardner-Webb +8.3 131.2 76% 82–71 ✗
Syracuse @ Notre Dame +5.0 137.8 77% 62–61 ✗
South Carolina State @ Furman +16.4 156.1 89% 76–88 ✓
South Carolina @ Georgetown +9.0 137.7 82% 74–71 ✗
Oklahoma @ Villanova -2.0 135.3 37% 66–70 ✗
Indiana State @ Miami (OH) -3.6 157.2 31% 88–61 ✓
Charleston @ The Citadel -1.9 148.0 36% 79–57 ✓
Wagner @ Army +1.8 147.3 52% 64–75 ✓
VCU @ Temple +2.4 131.4 54% 73–83 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Saint Joseph's +9.1 157.9 80% 97–80 ✗
Navy @ VMI -9.4 145.7 18% 72–80 ✗
Florida State @ Virginia +18.7 140.3 91% 57–62 ✓
Morgan State @ Bowling Green +1.6 142.4 55% 76–86 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Mississippi State +25.3 128.9 90% 52–82 ✓
North Alabama @ Morehead State +4.1 142.0 65% 81–75 ✗
Princeton @ Drexel +0.9 132.1 49% 83–63 ✗
Davidson @ Delaware +3.1 148.9 62% 67–69 ✓
North Florida @ High Point +12.1 150.9 87% 88–93 ✓
Bucknell @ NJIT -0.3 135.7 47% 79–63 ✓
Evansville @ Northern Iowa +5.4 135.7 73% 55–72 ✓
UMBC @ Lehigh +4.0 152.7 66% 88–62 ✗
UMass Lowell @ Sacred Heart -4.6 149.9 29% 70–59 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Winthrop +6.5 145.6 78% 86–81 ✗
UT Martin @ UNC Asheville +9.8 154.2 81% 83–90 ✓
Toledo @ George Mason +2.5 154.9 61% 73–80 ✓
Ball State @ Duquesne +8.6 146.0 80% 77–78 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Dayton +7.5 133.9 77% 74–80 ✓
La Salle @ Pennsylvania +9.0 139.3 80% 84–81 ✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ Dartmouth -2.9 133.5 34% 54–79 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ Butler +19.2 145.8 90% 66–80 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Buffalo +0.6 142.7 48% 66–83 ✓
Troy @ SIU Edwardsville +4.6 146.2 66% 72–78 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Tulsa +1.0 153.9 51% 77–66 ✗
Longwood @ Delaware State -5.1 139.4 32% 75–49 ✓
Jackson State @ SMU +8.3 142.1 76% 69–68 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Cleveland State +3.7 135.7 73% 77–92 ✓
Oakland @ Purdue Fort Wayne +9.3 146.2 85% 73–79 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Western Illinois +3.5 154.1 65% 72–90 ✓
South Dakota @ BYU +6.0 144.6 72% 69–68 ✗
Indiana @ Rutgers -0.1 132.5 46% 48–63 ✗
San José State @ Arkansas +14.5 141.5 88% 58–99 ✓
Boston College @ Duke +13.9 131.4 87% 59–75 ✓
Tennessee State @ Austin Peay +2.8 132.7 57% 61–77 ✓
New Hampshire @ Columbia +3.1 136.9 58% 52–56 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Elon -0.6 134.4 43% 65–61 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Wyoming -0.9 131.3 41% 66–58 ✓
Long Beach State @ Utah Valley +3.5 139.6 64% 78–88 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Saint Louis +4.3 138.6 66% 72–85 ✓
Air Force @ Portland State +6.4 146.2 74% 64–68 ✓
Rider @ Mount St. Mary's +7.9 143.6 80% 68–65 ✗
Jacksonville State @ East Tennessee State +3.1 142.0 61% 63–61 ✗
DePaul @ Loyola Chicago +1.6 143.5 54% 78–72 ✗
Northern Colorado @ Colorado State +18.6 149.9 90% 88–83 ✗
Wisconsin @ Marquette +14.1 138.0 87% 80–77 ✗
Stonehill @ Binghamton +2.3 151.7 56% 69–66 ✗
Sacramento State @ Santa Clara +6.5 146.0 74% 65–72 ✓
Ohio @ Marshall +13.9 149.1 87% 69–83 ✓
Howard @ Hampton +2.1 144.5 57% 65–74 ✓
Coppin State @ Loyola Maryland +3.3 155.0 63% 74–71 ✗
Louisiana @ LSU New Orleans -7.9 158.8 19% 78–77 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Grambling +8.3 135.3 78% 39–72 ✓
North Dakota State @ Eastern Washington +6.8 142.6 73% 70–78 ✓
Pacific @ UC Santa Barbara +4.0 142.5 65% 71–82 ✓
Providence @ Rhode Island +2.4 137.4 56% 88–74 ✗
Wofford @ Vanderbilt +6.8 145.6 74% 62–65 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Western Carolina +12.3 149.2 86% 79–64 ✗
UIC @ Drake +10.7 140.1 86% 64–77 ✓
Omaha @ North Texas +10.0 131.6 82% 45–75 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Holy Cross +0.9 135.3 46% 57–63 ✓
Robert Morris @ Northern Kentucky +2.0 133.6 60% 56–60 ✓
Yale @ Stony Brook -10.8 129.7 16% 77–72 ✓
West Virginia @ Xavier -0.1 151.3 47% 74–84 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.