Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | VMI +500 NAVY -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VMI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VMI +8 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -12.4 (+20.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (+7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -8.4 (+16.4) | 141.7 (+10.3) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -9.4 (+17.4) | 145.7 (+6.3) | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -10.9 (+18.9) | 149.4 (+2.6) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -9.4 (+17.4) | 144.4 (+7.6) | 29% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 30, 2023 | NAVY 67 – 47 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VMI | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 11-7 |
| Home | 6-8 | 9-6 |
| Away | 1-14 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 65.3 |
| Massey | -13.5 (#351) | 5.1 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.72 (#355) | 1.30 (#77) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.58 (#357) | 1.44 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.271 (#363) | 0.579 (#70) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VMI | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.7% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 42.5% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 57.1% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 16.2% | 15.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.4% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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