Just tell me where it hurts and I'll tell you who to call. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
Alumni Hall (Navy) · November 30, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread NAVY -4.5 Home covered
O/U 141.5 Under
Money NAVY -175 / VMI +188
Model Predictions
Spread Total NAVY win
Actual NAVY +20 114 Won
Massey NAVY -1.4 (+18.6) — —
Massey Totals — 139.6 (-25.6) —
Bradley-Terry — — 71% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 68% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ NAVY -3.5 (+16.5) 132.5 (-18.5) 69% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML NAVY -0.7 (+19.3) 133.7 (-19.7) 48% ✗
Baseline ML NAVY -1.2 (+18.8) 133.0 (-19.0) 50% ✗
Baseline Plus ML NAVY -2.1 (+17.9) 134.0 (-20.0) 55% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 3, 2022 VMI 80 – 72 NAVY

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings NAVY VMI
Overall 13-18 4-28
Conference 8-10 1-17
Home 10-5 4-10
Away 3-13 0-15
Neutral 0-0 0-3
Last 5 0-4 0-5
Streak L1 L13
Avg Pts For 65.6 66.7
Avg Pts Against 67.8 84.9
Massey -8.9 (#323) -3.8 (#242)
Bradley-Terry -3.20 (#348) -2.85 (#340)
W. Bradley-Terry -4.87 (#347) -4.20 (#340)
RPI 0.309 (#354) 0.393 (#310)
Shooting & Four Factors NAVY VMI
FG% 35.7% 44.6%
3PT% 24.4% 29.1%
REB / G 33.8 39.0
OREB / G 12.2 10.4
AST / TO 0.78 0.60
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 40.2% 48.7%
TOV% 19.3% 21.2%
ORB% 31.8% 28.7%
FT Rate 19.6% 15.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.2% 49.4%
Opp TOV% 19.6% 13.9%
DRB% 68.8% 69.4%
Opp FT Rate 30.0% 25.6%

Game Analysis

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