Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | CSU -1400 UNCO +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCO +5 | 171 | Lost |
| Massey | CSU -21.5 (-26.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (+21.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -18.0 (-23.0) | 152.8 (+18.2) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -18.6 (-23.6) | 149.9 (+21.1) | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -19.9 (-24.9) | 150.0 (+21.0) | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -20.8 (-25.8) | 148.1 (+22.9) | 89% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2023 | CSU 83 – 64 UNCO |
| Nov 27, 2021 | CSU 88 – 79 UNCO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-7 | 6-7 |
| Away | 4-8 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 77.7 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#56) | -7.8 (#311) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.17 (#89) | -0.35 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.44 (#106) | -1.20 (#255) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#91) | 0.536 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 28.4 |
| OREB / G | 5.9 | 6.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 18.5% | 19.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 79.3% | 62.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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