Betting Lines
| Spread | ARMY -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | ARMY -110 WAG +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARMY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARMY +11 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | ARMY -3.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.1 (-14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARMY -1.0 (+10.0) | 146.6 (-7.6) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -1.7 (+12.7) | 146.3 (-7.3) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARMY -1.8 (+9.2) | 147.3 (-8.3) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARMY -2.3 (+8.7) | 148.1 (-9.1) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARMY | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 15-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-8 |
| Home | 10-5 | 8-4 |
| Away | 7-8 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 61.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 62.3 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#267) | -2.5 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.19 (#319) | 0.43 (#146) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.44 (#326) | 0.04 (#181) |
| RPI | 0.351 (#349) | 0.500 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARMY | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 5.5 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 18.4% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.7% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 78.2% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 38.5% |
Game Analysis
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