Betting Lines
| Spread | IONA -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | IONA -800 NIA +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IONA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IONA +22 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | IONA -13.1 (+8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.1 (+9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IONA -9.9 (+12.1) | 132.1 (+1.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IONA -11.3 (+10.7) | 133.1 (+0.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IONA -8.8 (+13.2) | 133.7 (+0.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IONA -9.8 (+12.2) | 133.9 (+0.1) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | NIA 70 – 68 IONA |
| Jan 10, 2026 | IONA 71 – 53 NIA |
| Feb 28, 2025 | IONA 65 – 63 NIA |
| Feb 9, 2024 | IONA 74 – 71 NIA |
| Jan 7, 2024 | NIA 75 – 73 IONA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IONA | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 10-10 |
| Home | 11-1 | 9-4 |
| Away | 8-4 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 8-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 66.4 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#64) | -0.2 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#150) | 0.34 (#152) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#138) | -0.07 (#188) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#135) | 0.596 (#55) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IONA | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.77 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 12.7% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 11.4% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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