Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | UNCA -275 UTM +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +7 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -12.9 (-5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -9.8 (-2.8) | 153.8 (+19.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -9.0 (-2.0) | 153.9 (+19.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -9.8 (-2.8) | 154.2 (+18.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -10.5 (-3.5) | 153.7 (+19.3) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 15, 2021 | UTM 79 – 68 UNCA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-0 | 14-2 |
| Away | 10-6 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 77.1 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#155) | -5.3 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#161) | -1.02 (#272) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#173) | -2.06 (#294) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#187) | 0.433 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 41.2% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 63.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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