Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTM +11 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -0.8 (+11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (+7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTM -0.2 (+10.8) | 141.6 (+5.4) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -1.1 (+12.1) | 143.1 (+3.9) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -0.4 (+11.4) | 140.8 (+6.2) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -0.7 (+11.7) | 141.4 (+5.6) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2022 | UNCA 90 – 83 UTM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTM | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#293) | -1.8 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.94 (#309) | 0.94 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.98 (#320) | 0.88 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.416 (#295) | 0.522 (#135) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTM | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 12.6% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 62.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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