Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | SIUE +140 TROY -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIUE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIUE +6 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | SIUE -3.2 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (+3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIUE -0.0 (+6.0) | 142.4 (+7.6) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIUE -4.6 (+1.4) | 146.2 (+3.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIUE -4.1 (+1.9) | 145.7 (+4.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIUE -3.4 (+2.6) | 145.3 (+4.7) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 2, 2023 | TROY 83 – 60 SIUE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIUE | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 9-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 7-8 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#136) | 5.4 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.01 (#103) | 0.91 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#129) | 1.77 (#88) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#183) | 0.500 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIUE | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 27.7% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 33.3% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 79.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 36.8% |
Game Analysis
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