Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | TROY -225 SIUE +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +23 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -2.9 (+20.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (-0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -3.7 (+19.3) | 138.6 (+4.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -1.6 (+21.4) | 138.4 (+4.6) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -1.2 (+21.8) | 139.9 (+3.1) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -1.2 (+21.8) | 139.2 (+3.8) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2022 | SIUE 78 – 72 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 12-2 |
| Away | 5-9 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#274) | -2.2 (#218) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.83 (#342) | 0.97 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.78 (#337) | 1.05 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.287 (#360) | 0.510 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 42.6 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 15.8 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 22.5% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 32.7% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 12.9% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.8% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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