Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | GMU +125 TOL -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +7 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -1.9 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.2 (-7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -1.6 (+5.4) | 150.7 (+2.3) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -2.5 (+4.5) | 154.9 (-1.9) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -2.3 (+4.7) | 153.9 (-0.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -2.4 (+4.6) | 153.2 (-0.2) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2023 | GMU 86 – 77 TOL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 16-2 |
| Home | 14-2 | 13-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 84.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 76.6 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#210) | 2.7 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#185) | 0.04 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#203) | -0.20 (#198) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#102) | 0.518 (#150) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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