Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | TOL -163 GMU +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +9 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -8.9 (-17.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (+17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -5.8 (-14.8) | 144.3 (+18.7) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -6.0 (-15.0) | 145.0 (+18.0) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -5.6 (-14.6) | 146.3 (+16.7) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -5.2 (-14.2) | 142.7 (+20.3) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2022 | GMU 80 – 73 TOL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-3 | 14-3 |
| Away | 8-5 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.0 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#73) | 3.6 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#114) | 1.38 (#75) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#131) | 1.76 (#81) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#134) | 0.580 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 40.4% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.2% | 44.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.6% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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