Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | BUF +110 SBU -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +17 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | BUF -0.3 (+16.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (+3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -0.8 (+17.8) | 143.6 (+5.4) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -0.7 (+17.7) | 142.9 (+6.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -0.6 (+16.4) | 142.7 (+6.3) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -0.1 (+16.9) | 144.0 (+5.0) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | SBU 77 – 69 BUF |
| Dec 7, 2024 | SBU 65 – 55 BUF |
| Dec 2, 2023 | SBU 80 – 65 BUF |
| Dec 4, 2021 | SBU 68 – 65 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.0 | 67.7 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#234) | 2.9 (#124) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#219) | 0.70 (#127) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#222) | 1.10 (#123) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#170) | 0.521 (#147) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.9% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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