You'll work harder with a gun in your back, for a bowl of rice a day. "Holiday In Cambodia" - The Dead Kennedys
Reilly Center · December 4, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread SBU -2.5 Home covered
O/U 148.5 Under
Model Predictions
Spread Total SBU win
Actual SBU +3 133 Won
Massey SBU -4.3 (-1.3)
Massey Totals 159.2 (-26.2)
Bradley-Terry 89%
Weighted B-T 85%
Efficiency Plus ML SBU -4.3 (-1.3) 150.2 (-17.2) 74%
Baseline Tuned ML SBU -5.6 (-2.6) 155.4 (-22.4) 71%
Baseline ML SBU -4.8 (-1.8) 153.0 (-20.0) 71%
Baseline Plus ML SBU -5.3 (-2.3) 154.6 (-21.6) 72%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 6, 2025 SBU 7769 BUF
Dec 7, 2024 SBU 6555 BUF
Dec 2, 2023 SBU 8065 BUF
Dec 3, 2022 BUF 8366 SBU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SBU BUF
Overall 23-10 19-11
Conference 12-5 13-6
Home 13-2 9-3
Away 7-4 9-5
Neutral 3-4 1-3
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L1 L3
Avg Pts For 70.0 78.7
Avg Pts Against 66.5 73.6
Massey 3.8 (#103) 5.3 (#83)
Bradley-Terry 1.51 (#73) 0.59 (#133)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.69 (#87) 1.28 (#106)
RPI 0.547 (#104) 0.533 (#125)
Shooting & Four Factors SBU BUF
FG% 45.6% 47.8%
3PT% 33.6% 37.2%
REB / G 36.6 40.4
OREB / G 8.4 11.8
AST / TO 1.52 1.03
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.3% 54.9%
TOV% 13.6% 19.3%
ORB% 25.2% 33.9%
FT Rate 24.6% 21.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.4% 48.9%
Opp TOV% 17.0% 14.2%
DRB% 74.3% 68.8%
Opp FT Rate 17.0% 20.4%

Game Analysis

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