Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +3 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | SBU -4.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.2 (-26.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -4.3 (-1.3) | 150.2 (-17.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -5.6 (-2.6) | 155.4 (-22.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -4.8 (-1.8) | 153.0 (-20.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -5.3 (-2.3) | 154.6 (-21.6) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | SBU 77 – 69 BUF |
| Dec 7, 2024 | SBU 65 – 55 BUF |
| Dec 2, 2023 | SBU 80 – 65 BUF |
| Dec 3, 2022 | BUF 83 – 66 SBU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 19-11 |
| Conference | 12-5 | 13-6 |
| Home | 13-2 | 9-3 |
| Away | 7-4 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#103) | 5.3 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#73) | 0.59 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#87) | 1.28 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#104) | 0.533 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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