Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | BUF +400 SBU -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +15 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | SBU -8.8 (-6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.7 (+7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -9.9 (-5.1) | 136.8 (+8.2) | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -8.1 (-6.9) | 135.9 (+9.1) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -8.7 (-6.3) | 136.4 (+8.6) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -9.2 (-5.8) | 137.7 (+7.3) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | SBU 77 – 69 BUF |
| Dec 7, 2024 | SBU 65 – 55 BUF |
| Dec 3, 2022 | BUF 83 – 66 SBU |
| Dec 4, 2021 | SBU 68 – 65 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-27 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 9-9 |
| Home | 2-13 | 11-4 |
| Away | 2-11 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.6 | 68.6 |
| Massey | -15.6 (#357) | -0.5 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.99 (#358) | 0.01 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.68 (#357) | -0.06 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.334 (#347) | 0.540 (#117) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 24.4% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.4% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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