Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | GONZ -138 BAY +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +1 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | BAY -0.3 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.4 (-43.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -0.0 (-1.0) | 160.8 (-33.8) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -1.2 (+0.2) | 155.8 (-28.8) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -1.1 (+0.1) | 161.9 (-34.9) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -0.4 (-0.6) | 164.4 (-37.4) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 5, 2024 | GONZ 101 – 63 BAY |
| Apr 6, 2021 | BAY 86 – 70 GONZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-1 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-2 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 9-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.2 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 12.5 (#26) | 12.8 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.69 (#22) | 1.77 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.75 (#26) | 3.06 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.677 (#6) | 0.582 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.9% | 50.3% |
| 3PT% | 41.0% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.9% | 59.8% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 38.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 23.8% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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