Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | GONZ -175 BAY +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +16 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | GONZ -3.8 (-19.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.4 (-10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -3.5 (-19.5) | 161.2 (-5.2) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -1.0 (-17.0) | 157.7 (-1.7) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -0.9 (-16.9) | 161.4 (-5.4) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -3.2 (-19.2) | 164.4 (-8.4) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 5, 2024 | GONZ 101 – 63 BAY |
| Dec 3, 2022 | BAY 64 – 63 GONZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-1 | 28-2 |
| Conference | 15-0 | 13-1 |
| Home | 12-0 | 11-0 |
| Away | 7-0 | 7-1 |
| Neutral | 12-1 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W6 |
| Avg Pts For | 91.0 | 82.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 65.5 |
| Massey | 26.2 (#1) | 22.4 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.82 (#1) | 4.55 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 7.49 (#1) | 5.46 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.674 (#1) | 0.655 (#2) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 55.0% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 41.2% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.1% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 36.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 24.5% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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