Free Nelson Mandela! "Nelson Mandela" - The Specials
(1) Gonzaga Bulldogs
70 86
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(1) Baylor Bears
Lucas Oil Stadium (Neutral) · April 6, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread GONZ -4.5 Away covered
O/U 158.5 Under
Money GONZ -175 / BAY +188
Model Predictions
Spread Total GONZ win
Actual BAY +16 156 Lost
Massey GONZ -3.8 (-19.8)
Massey Totals 166.4 (-10.4)
Bradley-Terry 78%
Weighted B-T 88%
Baseline Plus ML GONZ -2.0 (-18.0) 160.6 (-4.6) 52%
Model 4 ML GONZ -2.4 (-18.4) 158.2 (-2.2) 54%
Model 3 ML GONZ -6.7 (-22.7) 161.1 (-5.1) 70%
Baseline ML GONZ -5.4 (-21.4) 165.6 (-9.6) 41%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 5, 2024 GONZ 10163 BAY
Dec 3, 2022 BAY 6463 GONZ

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings GONZ BAY
Overall 31-1 28-2
Conference 15-0 13-1
Home 12-0 11-0
Away 7-0 7-1
Neutral 12-1 10-1
Last 5 5-0 5-0
Streak L1 W6
Avg Pts For 91.0 82.9
Avg Pts Against 69.7 65.5
Massey 26.2 (#1) 22.4 (#2)
Bradley-Terry 5.82 (#1) 4.55 (#2)
W. Bradley-Terry 7.49 (#1) 5.46 (#2)
RPI 0.674 (#1) 0.655 (#2)
Shooting & Four Factors GONZ BAY
FG% 55.0% 48.8%
3PT% 37.0% 41.2%
REB / G 37.6 35.9
OREB / G 9.5 12.7
AST / TO 1.58 1.46
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 61.1% 56.7%
TOV% 16.0% 16.7%
ORB% 30.4% 36.9%
FT Rate 26.0% 18.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.5% 48.7%
Opp TOV% 19.5% 24.5%
DRB% 76.9% 69.1%
Opp FT Rate 17.9% 21.5%

Game Analysis

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