Betting Lines
| Spread | TEM -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | TEM -138 VCU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEM +10 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | TEM -3.7 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.9 (+26.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEM -1.3 (+8.7) | 133.1 (+22.9) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEM -2.4 (+7.6) | 131.4 (+24.6) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEM -2.5 (+7.5) | 132.1 (+23.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEM -2.8 (+7.2) | 131.9 (+24.1) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 16, 2023 | VCU 87 – 78 TEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEM | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 15-3 |
| Home | 9-7 | 15-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 62.9 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#177) | 2.8 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#258) | 1.28 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#230) | 2.44 (#61) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#202) | 0.575 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEM | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 23.7% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 38.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 26.6% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.6% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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