Betting Lines
| Spread | GT -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Over |
| Money | GT -650 NE +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GT +18 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | GT -16.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.3 (+15.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GT -13.4 (+4.6) | 133.0 (+11.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GT -13.1 (+4.9) | 133.6 (+10.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GT -11.9 (+6.1) | 133.5 (+10.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GT -13.0 (+5.0) | 133.8 (+10.2) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-6 | 6-6 |
| Away | 3-9 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#119) | -7.5 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#132) | -1.56 (#300) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.04 (#126) | -2.21 (#297) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#111) | 0.406 (#304) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | NE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 11.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 61.3% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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