Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | AUB -1000 COLG +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +27 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -10.5 (+16.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.6 (+18.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -9.7 (+17.3) | 141.7 (+17.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -11.9 (+15.1) | 141.6 (+17.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -9.4 (+17.6) | 141.5 (+17.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -10.1 (+16.9) | 142.8 (+16.2) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 17-1 |
| Home | 14-2 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 11-4 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#59) | 3.0 (#122) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.90 (#17) | -0.09 (#194) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.97 (#20) | 0.40 (#159) |
| RPI | 0.673 (#9) | 0.455 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 50.2% |
| 3PT% | 26.6% | 40.9% |
| REB / G | 42.4 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.6 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 58.6% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 38.6% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.8% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 15.2% |
Game Analysis
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