Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | USF -600 CHSO +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +20 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | USF -7.3 (+12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.8 (+0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -4.8 (+15.2) | 139.0 (-1.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -5.5 (+14.5) | 137.7 (+0.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -4.6 (+15.4) | 139.8 (-1.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -4.8 (+15.2) | 140.2 (-2.2) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 5-13 |
| Home | 9-9 | 6-8 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#231) | -4.0 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.06 (#317) | -1.29 (#287) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.88 (#288) | -1.40 (#267) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#250) | 0.463 (#228) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 12.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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