Betting Lines
| Spread | PRIN -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | DREX +130 PRIN -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DREX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRIN +20 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | DREX -1.0 (-21.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.8 (+18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRIN -0.2 (-19.8) | 132.2 (+13.8) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -0.9 (-20.9) | 132.1 (+13.9) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -0.6 (-20.6) | 132.8 (+13.2) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -0.6 (-20.6) | 131.0 (+15.0) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2023 | PRIN 81 – 70 DREX |
| Dec 4, 2021 | PRIN 81 – 79 DREX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DREX | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 23-9 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-4 |
| Home | 12-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.0 | 68.8 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#188) | 5.0 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#260) | 0.85 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#229) | 1.19 (#120) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#241) | 0.519 (#149) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DREX | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 80.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.9% | 15.3% |
Game Analysis
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