Betting Lines
| Spread | OSU -29.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OSU +37 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | OSU -28.7 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (+6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OSU -27.2 (+9.8) | 148.6 (+6.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OSU -26.0 (+11.0) | 147.3 (+7.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OSU -22.9 (+14.1) | 150.1 (+4.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OSU -25.5 (+11.5) | 150.0 (+5.0) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OSU | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-19 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 9-7 |
| Home | 10-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 1-10 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 12.6 (#25) | -9.9 (#330) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#70) | -2.80 (#341) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.09 (#73) | -3.74 (#331) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#109) | 0.384 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OSU | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.5% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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