Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | UCSB -600 PAC +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +11 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -5.3 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (+6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -3.8 (+7.2) | 143.5 (+9.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -5.7 (+5.3) | 142.4 (+10.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -4.0 (+7.0) | 142.5 (+10.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -4.0 (+7.0) | 143.8 (+9.2) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 15, 2021 | PAC 80 – 71 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 7-9 |
| Home | 12-3 | 7-10 |
| Away | 10-4 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 78.4 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#206) | -0.5 (#193) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.26 (#286) | -1.34 (#290) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.17 (#319) | -1.22 (#256) |
| RPI | 0.404 (#306) | 0.379 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 82.2% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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