Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PAC +9 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | PAC -0.1 (+8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.6 (+15.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PAC -0.6 (+8.4) | 135.6 (+15.4) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -0.3 (+9.3) | 134.4 (+16.6) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PAC -0.3 (+8.7) | 136.8 (+14.2) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PAC -0.5 (+8.5) | 137.7 (+13.3) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2022 | UCSB 82 – 71 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PAC | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-22 | 17-11 |
| Conference | 3-11 | 8-5 |
| Home | 7-7 | 11-3 |
| Away | 0-13 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 65.8 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#236) | 1.2 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.79 (#298) | -1.01 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.20 (#296) | -1.24 (#255) |
| RPI | 0.351 (#348) | 0.431 (#279) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PAC | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 31.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 78.2% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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