Betting Lines
| Spread | LIB -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | LIB -1600 UMES +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIB +20 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | LIB -14.9 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.3 (+4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIB -12.4 (+7.6) | 132.8 (+5.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIB -11.5 (+8.5) | 135.8 (+2.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIB -12.6 (+7.4) | 135.7 (+2.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIB -11.4 (+8.6) | 133.1 (+4.9) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 25, 2023 | LIB 99 – 62 UMES |
| Nov 27, 2021 | LIB 73 – 61 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIB | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 9-5 |
| Home | 19-1 | 10-3 |
| Away | 6-7 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.3 | 68.9 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#147) | -6.9 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#160) | -0.47 (#225) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#158) | -0.80 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#138) | 0.517 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIB | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 36.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 42.2% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.6% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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