All your compliments and your cutting remarks are captured here in my quotation marks. "Everyday I Write the Book" - Elvis Costello
Liberty Arena (VA) · December 3, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread LIB -15.5 Home covered
O/U 132.5 Over
Money LIB -1600 / UMES +1100
Model Predictions
Spread Total LIB win
Actual LIB +20 138 Won
Massey LIB -14.9 (+5.1) — —
Massey Totals — 133.3 (+4.7) —
Bradley-Terry — — 87% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 93% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ LIB -12.4 (+7.6) 132.8 (+5.2) 86% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML LIB -11.5 (+8.5) 135.8 (+2.2) 85% ✓
Baseline ML LIB -12.6 (+7.4) 135.7 (+2.3) 86% ✓
Baseline Plus ML LIB -11.4 (+8.6) 133.1 (+4.9) 85% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 25, 2023 LIB 99 – 62 UMES
Nov 27, 2021 LIB 73 – 61 UMES

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LIB UMES
Overall 27-9 18-13
Conference 15-3 9-5
Home 19-1 10-3
Away 6-7 7-9
Neutral 2-1 1-1
Last 5 3-2 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 72.6 66.7
Avg Pts Against 62.3 68.9
Massey 1.8 (#147) -6.9 (#296)
Bradley-Terry 0.23 (#160) -0.47 (#225)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.41 (#158) -0.80 (#231)
RPI 0.530 (#138) 0.517 (#153)
Shooting & Four Factors LIB UMES
FG% 43.4% 36.4%
3PT% 35.3% 32.3%
REB / G 31.5 31.0
OREB / G 8.5 9.8
AST / TO 1.28 0.74
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.6% 42.2%
TOV% 20.0% 20.8%
ORB% 26.0% 26.6%
FT Rate 16.9% 19.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.7% 51.4%
Opp TOV% 18.7% 20.8%
DRB% 72.6% 69.0%
Opp FT Rate 28.6% 28.9%

Game Analysis

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