Betting Lines
| Spread | LIB -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 121.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIB +12 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | LIB -7.4 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.8 (+11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIB -4.5 (+7.5) | 129.1 (+4.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIB -3.7 (+8.3) | 130.0 (+4.0) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIB -4.9 (+7.1) | 129.8 (+4.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIB -4.1 (+7.9) | 129.7 (+4.3) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 25, 2023 | LIB 99 – 62 UMES |
| Dec 3, 2022 | LIB 79 – 59 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIB | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-5 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#180) | -1.1 (#192) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#209) | 0.23 (#161) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#224) | -0.01 (#172) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#147) | 0.466 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIB | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 36.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 42.5% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 16.7% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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