Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | SMU -800 JKST +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JKST +1 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | SMU -10.9 (-11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (-5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -9.2 (-10.2) | 141.4 (-4.4) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -9.1 (-10.1) | 140.4 (-3.4) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -8.3 (-9.3) | 142.1 (-5.1) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -8.3 (-9.3) | 142.0 (-5.0) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-9 | 7-2 |
| Away | 1-11 | 6-14 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 73.6 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#223) | -7.2 (#303) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#233) | -3.44 (#352) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#216) | -5.47 (#356) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#224) | 0.296 (#358) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 27.9% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.1% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 14.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 60.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 77.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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