Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | MD -125 ILL +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +5 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | MD -3.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (-6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -3.7 (+1.3) | 145.8 (-8.8) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -3.1 (+1.9) | 146.8 (-9.8) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -3.4 (+1.6) | 145.6 (-8.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -3.5 (+1.5) | 144.7 (-7.7) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | ILL 78 – 72 MD |
| Jan 22, 2026 | ILL 89 – 70 MD |
| Mar 14, 2025 | MD 88 – 65 ILL |
| Jan 24, 2025 | MD 91 – 70 ILL |
| Feb 17, 2024 | ILL 85 – 80 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 16-1 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-9 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.5 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 14.2 (#17) | 16.5 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.72 (#6) | 2.06 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.90 (#4) | 3.72 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.654 (#16) | 0.545 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.9% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 57.1% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.6% | 41.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 25.4% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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