Betting Lines
| Spread | LEH -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | LEH -120 UMBC +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LEH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +26 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | LEH -6.3 (-32.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (-6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LEH -1.7 (-27.7) | 148.6 (+1.4) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LEH -4.0 (-30.0) | 152.7 (-2.7) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LEH -4.1 (-30.1) | 151.1 (-1.1) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LEH -3.6 (-29.6) | 148.1 (+1.9) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 2, 2023 | UMBC 92 – 87 LEH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LEH | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-14 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-8 |
| Home | 9-6 | 13-4 |
| Away | 7-8 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 73.0 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#290) | -6.8 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#236) | -1.11 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#240) | -1.29 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#246) | 0.387 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LEH | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 58.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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