Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | PFW -333 OAK +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +6 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | PFW -15.2 (-9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.8 (-2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -8.7 (-2.7) | 147.8 (+4.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -8.6 (-2.6) | 150.1 (+1.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -9.3 (-3.3) | 146.2 (+5.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -9.8 (-3.8) | 146.6 (+5.4) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | OAK 74 – 65 PFW |
| Dec 4, 2025 | OAK 101 – 92 PFW |
| Feb 22, 2025 | PFW 80 – 66 OAK |
| Jan 23, 2025 | OAK 76 – 72 PFW |
| Mar 8, 2024 | OAK 75 – 65 PFW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 11-9 |
| Home | 9-6 | 8-6 |
| Away | 7-8 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 77.9 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#241) | -12.3 (#347) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#220) | -3.03 (#347) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#225) | -4.24 (#342) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#178) | 0.358 (#344) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.7% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 30.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.65 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.9% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 23.5% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 58.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 62.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.3% | 15.3% |
Game Analysis
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