Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | VAN -500 WOF +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +3 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | VAN -7.9 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (-23.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -6.2 (-3.2) | 142.9 (-15.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -5.1 (-2.1) | 139.2 (-12.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -6.8 (-3.8) | 145.6 (-18.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -6.3 (-3.3) | 147.6 (-20.6) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-15 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-6 | 12-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 74.0 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#126) | 1.2 (#162) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#195) | 0.51 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#168) | 1.01 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#152) | 0.509 (#162) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 29.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 16.8% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 15.7% |
Game Analysis
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