Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | DAY -1600 SELA +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +6 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -11.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.9 (+23.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -7.5 (-1.5) | 133.9 (+20.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -11.8 (-5.8) | 136.4 (+17.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -8.2 (-2.2) | 136.6 (+17.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -7.8 (-1.8) | 136.3 (+17.7) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.0 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#125) | -2.1 (#215) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#241) | 0.10 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#207) | -0.42 (#212) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#196) | 0.488 (#195) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 26.0% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 20.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.1% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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