Betting Lines
| Spread | PENN -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | PENN -163 LAS +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAS +3 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | PENN -10.8 (-13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (+26.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PENN -7.9 (-10.9) | 143.0 (+22.0) | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PENN -6.8 (-9.8) | 140.0 (+25.0) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PENN -9.0 (-12.0) | 139.3 (+25.7) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PENN -8.2 (-11.2) | 139.8 (+25.2) | 80% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 29, 2025 | PENN 73 – 71 LAS |
| Dec 2, 2023 | LAS 93 – 92 PENN |
| Dec 11, 2021 | LAS 76 – 74 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-13 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-4 | 8-7 |
| Away | 6-9 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#203) | -5.8 (#280) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#196) | -0.96 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#180) | -1.41 (#268) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#174) | 0.469 (#218) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 38.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.0% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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