Betting Lines
| Spread | PENN -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | LAS +110 PENN -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAS +1 | 185 | Won |
| Massey | PENN -3.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.8 (+29.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PENN -2.9 (+3.9) | 151.1 (+33.9) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PENN -1.9 (+2.9) | 149.6 (+35.4) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PENN -2.0 (+3.0) | 151.8 (+33.2) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PENN -1.2 (+2.2) | 152.7 (+32.3) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 29, 2025 | PENN 73 – 71 LAS |
| Dec 3, 2022 | LAS 84 – 81 PENN |
| Dec 11, 2021 | LAS 76 – 74 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAS | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 3-11 |
| Home | 11-6 | 9-6 |
| Away | 3-10 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 75.7 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#244) | -0.6 (#182) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#159) | 0.06 (#182) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#174) | 0.54 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#188) | 0.460 (#236) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAS | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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