Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | NOLA +650 UL -800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NOLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +1 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | UL -12.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.6 (-8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -11.7 (+10.7) | 156.7 (-1.7) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -10.0 (+9.0) | 157.8 (-2.8) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -7.9 (+6.9) | 158.8 (-3.8) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -10.0 (+9.0) | 157.2 (-2.2) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2021 | UL 80 – 67 NOLA |
| Dec 16, 2020 | UL 73 – 63 NOLA |
| Dec 3, 2020 | UL 66 – 63 NOLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NOLA | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 13-5 |
| Home | 6-9 | 14-0 |
| Away | 4-10 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.1 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -14.3 (#352) | 4.4 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.29 (#322) | 2.25 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.23 (#322) | 2.88 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#291) | 0.665 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NOLA | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 26.9% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.6% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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