Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | UL -800 NOLA +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +10 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | UL -14.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.3 (-6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -10.5 (-0.5) | 143.9 (-7.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -9.3 (+0.7) | 142.6 (-6.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -10.5 (-0.5) | 143.1 (-7.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -11.7 (-1.7) | 141.6 (-5.6) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2022 | UL 78 – 77 NOLA |
| Dec 4, 2021 | UL 80 – 67 NOLA |
| Dec 3, 2020 | UL 66 – 63 NOLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-5 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#221) | -12.0 (#305) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#88) | -2.16 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#97) | -3.03 (#282) |
| RPI | 0.610 (#42) | 0.456 (#203) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 23.5% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.60 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 26.7% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.2% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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