Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +13 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | UL -6.6 (+6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -5.3 (+7.7) | 144.5 (+2.5) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -6.1 (+6.9) | 143.5 (+3.5) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -4.4 (+8.6) | 143.4 (+3.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -4.6 (+8.4) | 144.0 (+3.0) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2022 | UL 78 – 77 NOLA |
| Dec 16, 2020 | UL 73 – 63 NOLA |
| Dec 3, 2020 | UL 66 – 63 NOLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 10-4 |
| Home | 7-6 | 12-2 |
| Away | 6-8 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 76.7 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#267) | -6.1 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#246) | -1.95 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#220) | -2.44 (#299) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#279) | 0.411 (#299) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 33.5% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 15.5 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.47 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.0% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 24.9% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.0% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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